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Are you taking decisions that will deliver successful projects in the Oil and Gas Industry?

Given the complexity and associated risks of projects in the oil and gas industry it is imperative to construct efficient financial models to enable sound decision-making and the delivery of excellence.

This conference will bring together experts from the financial sector, the industry and academia to share their thoughts on key areas that need to be understood in order to master financial modelling in this sector. This two day conference will thus equip delegates with a toolkit necessary to use and develop financial models for oil and gas projects.

Providing excellent networking opportunities, this conference is suitable for all those currently involved in oil and gas projects and wishing to health-check and brush up on their modelling skills. It is also an ideal starting point either for those considering new projects in the oil and gas industry or those new to the sector.

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Why you should attend:

  • Understand the key areas for financial modelling in the oil and gas industry
  • Learn best practice techniques and how to avoid worst practice
  • Strengthen your modelling skills
  • Equip yourself with a toolkit to enable sound and confident decisions
  • Identify industry specific risk and discuss how to model it effectively

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Key topics covered: modelling price drivers and formations, hedging oil, gas and electricity price risk, arbitrage free conitegrated models in the gas and oil future markets, modelling carbon risk exposure, calculating the Renewables Obligation Certificate value

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A unique opportunity to learn from industry experts including:

Peter Saling, Risk Management Specialist, Mol Group

Professor Bunn, Decision Science, London Business School

Mats Kjaer, Manager, Quantitative Analytics, Barclays Capital

Simon Wardell, Research Manager, Energy Practice, Global Insight

Metin Epozdemir, Manager, Moody’s Analytics

John Richter, Director, Financial Mechanics

Celine Jerusalem, Project Manager, Statistics and Artificial Intelligence Section, GDF Suez

Michael Cragg, Principal, The Brattle Group

Etienne Gabel, Senior Consultant, ICF International

Dr Robert Manicke, Corp.Director of Quantitative Analyses, StatoilHydro

Conference programme

8:30 Registration & Coffee

9:00 Chairman's opening remarks

Michael Cragg

Michael Cragg, Principal, The Brattle Group

9:10 HEDGING OIL, GAS, AND ELECTRICITY PRICE RISK IN THE PRESENCE OF POLLUTION COSTS

Michael Cragg

Michael Cragg, Principal, The Brattle Group

  • Discussion of delta hedging using spread option models and the spark spread
  • Discussion of adjustments to hedging programs accounting for transaction costs
  • Discussion of adjustments to hedging programs accounting for SOx, NOx and carbons costs
  • 9:50 MODELLING PRICE DRIVERS AND FORMATIONS

    Derek Bunn

    Derek Bunn, Lecturer, London Business School

  • Development of price and risk scenarios for financial models
  • The inter-relationships of oil, gas, power and carbon prices
  • Volatility models for risk simulation
  • Climate change policy risk and energy investment
  • 10:30 Morning Coffee

    11:00 MODELLING THE CORRELATION MATRIX OF NATURAL GAS FUTURE RETURNS

    Mats Kjaer

    Mats Kjaer, Quantitative Analyst, Barclays Capital

  • Correct correlation matrix important in derivatives and project valuation, portfolio optimisation and risk management.
  • Examples of pitfalls when computing the sample correlation matrix
  • The parameteric correlation function approach.
  • Fitting the models to data.
  • Results and model evaluation.
  • 11:40 CREDIT RISK MODELLING - MEASURING PERFORMANCE

    Metin Epozdemir

    Metin Epozdemir, Manager, Moody's Analytics

  • Credit risk measurement categories
  • Market driven credit risk measures
  • Testing the discriminatory power of a credit scoring model
  • Validation and Calibration techniques
  • How to prepare for the downturn
  • 12:20 Networking Lunch

    13:50 A VIEW FROM GAS DE FRANCE - ARBITRAGE FREE COINTEGRATED MODELS IN GAS AND OIL FUTURE MARKETS

    Celine Jerusalem

    Celine Jerusalem, Project Manager, GDF Suez

  • Natural gas and crude oil term structure modelling
  • Cointergration and Vectorial Error Correction Model
  • Application for a spread option
  • 14:30 GAS CONTRACT ALPHABET SOUP: MODELLING THE IMPACT OF COMMONLY OCCURRING TERMS AND CONDITIONS

    John Richter

    John Richter, Director, Financial Mechanics

  • Contractual time granularity: Quantity specifications on short, medium, and long-term periods
  • Contract flexibility: Minimum take obligations, ‘swing’, and make-up / carryforward gas
  • Interaction among multiple supply contracts: Indexation provisions, marginal price determination, price ranking, and ‘take cascade’
  • Tolling agreements: Overview of basic provisions
  • 15:10 Afternoon Tea

    15:40 GETTING AHEAD OF THE DEMANDING SHAREHOLDER REQUIREMENTS

    Peter Saling

    Peter Saling, Risk Management Specialist , MOL Group

  • Introduction of MOL Group and the evolution of risk management
  • Mapping, measuring and reporting Financial, Operational and Strategic risks at Group level
  • Risk Simulation and Risk Reporting with ERM Model
  • How to use Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) results in key decision making processes (i.e. capital allocation, KPIs, strategic planning)
  • 16:20 AVOIDING WORST PRACTICE

    David  Whittaker

    David Whittaker, Director, Modelling Solutions

  • Introduction
  • Financial Modelling Best Practice
  • Sources & Consequences Of Errors
  • The Use And Limitations Of Template And Generic Models
  • Finalising Models – Testing etc
  • Summary & Conclusions
  • 17:00 Chairman's closing remarks

    Michael Cragg

    Michael Cragg, Principal, The Brattle Group

    8:30 Registration & coffee

    9:00 Chairman's opening remarks

    Robert Manicke

    Robert Manicke, Corp.Director of Quantitative Analyses, Statoil Marketing & Trading (US) Inc.

    9:10 MODELLING RISK INTER-RELATIONSHIPS: GAS - TO - POWER RISK

    Robert Manicke

    Robert Manicke, Corp.Director of Quantitative Analyses, Statoil Marketing & Trading (US) Inc.

  • Analyzing the physical vs financial risk in gas-to-power markets.
  • Key differences and similarities in modeling power prices with other storable energy commodities.
  • Valuation of power prices and spark-spread options.
  • 9:50 RISK AND DECISION ANALYSIS MODELLING

    Dr Michael Rees

    Dr Michael Rees, Director of Training and Consulting, Palisade Europe

  • Using Monte Carlo Simulation for uncertainty analysis of reserve estimates
  • Using Decision Trees to value testing and project phasing decisions
  • Other examples of modelling financial uncertainty in projects
  • Using add-ins to the Excel environment
  • 10:30 Morning Coffee

    11:00 POLITICAL RISK AND OIL: CAN WE QUANTIFY THE UNQUANTIFIABLE?

    Simon Wardell

    Simon Wardell, Director, Global Oil, Global Insight

  • How do we define political risk as it relates to the oil industry?
  • Political ris through history: examples of how political developments have impacted the oil sector
  • Political risk and oil prices - how strong a connection? Can we seek to quantify it?
  • Is political risk more important now than it has been in the past?
  • Looking ahead, can we expect to see risks increasing?
  • Is it possible (or useful) to try and quantify political risk?
  • 11:40 MODELLING CARBON RISK EXPOSURE IN THE CARBON CONSTRAINED ECONOMY

    Yulia Reuter

    Yulia Reuter, Oil and Gas Analyst, Innovest Strategic Value Advisors

  • Case Study: Carbon sequestration requirement in the Canadian oil sands sector 
  • Modeling carbon risk exposure of large emitters:  assumptions, inputs and carbon beta results
  • Industry comparison
  • Investment Implications
  • 12:20 Networking Lunch

    13:50 THE LINK BETWEEN EUA PRICES AND CROSS-BORDER ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION

    Etienne Gabel

    Etienne Gabel, Senior Consultant, ICF International

  • TSO coordination and opportunities for fuel switching: impacts of cross-border dispatch flexibility on natural gas use in the European power sector.
  • Development of an efficient and integrated European energy market: influence on CO2 emissions and allocation prices.
  • Rise of renewable generation, impacts on electricity grids and transmission of baseload thermal generation.
  • 14:30 THE RENEWABLES OBLIGATION CERTIFICATE

    John Aldersey-Williams

    John Aldersey-Williams, Director, Redfield Consulting

  • The Renewables Obligation (policy setting for ROCs)
  • Setting the RO target (how the RO mechanism works)
  • Valuing ROCs (estimating supply and demand, calculating ROC value)
  • Uncertainties (political risk, regulatory, bankability)
  • Relative values of ROCs and power 
  • 15:10 Chairman's closing remarks followed by Afternoon Tea

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    Workshops

    Optimisation & Predictive Analytics in the Oil & Gas Industry
    Workshop

    Optimisation & Predictive Analytics in the Oil & Gas Industry

    Crowne Plaza Hotel - St James
    11th November 2008
    London, United Kingdom

    Copthorne Tara Hotel

    Scarsdale Place
    Kensington
    London W8 5SR
    United Kingdom

    Copthorne Tara Hotel

    The Copthorne Tara Hotel London Kensington is an elegant contemporary four-star hotel in prestigious Kensington, located just a two minutes walk from High Street Kensington underground station, making exploring easy. The hotel offers well-appointed and comfortable guest rooms combining Standard, Superior and Club accommodation. Club rooms offer iconic views over the city and include Club Lounge access for complimentary breakfast and refreshments. Guests can sample the authentic Singaporean, Malaysian and Chinese cuisine at Bugis Street, traditional pub fare at the Brasserie Restaurant & Bar or relax with a delicious drink at West8 Cocktail Lounge & Bar.

    The Copthorne Tara Hotel boasts 745 square meters of flexible meeting space, consisting of the Shannon Suite and the Liffey Suite, ideal for hosting conferences, weddings and social events. Facilities include access to the business centre 24 hours a day, fully equipped fitness room, gift shop, theatre desk and Bureau de Change. With ample onsite parking outside the London congestion charge zone and excellent transport links via Heathrow Airport, the hotel is the perfect location for business or leisure stays. The hotel is within close proximity to the shops of High Street Kensington, Knightsbridge and Westfield London, Olympia Conference Centre, Royal Albert Hall, Kensington Palace and Hyde Park.

     

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    WHAT IS CPD?

    CPD stands for Continuing Professional Development’. It is essentially a philosophy, which maintains that in order to be effective, learning should be organised and structured. The most common definition is:

    ‘A commitment to structured skills and knowledge enhancement for Personal or Professional competence’

    CPD is a common requirement of individual membership with professional bodies and Institutes. Increasingly, employers also expect their staff to undertake regular CPD activities.

    Undertaken over a period of time, CPD ensures that educational qualifications do not become obsolete, and allows for best practice and professional standards to be upheld.

    CPD can be undertaken through a variety of learning activities including instructor led training courses, seminars and conferences, e:learning modules or structured reading.

    CPD AND PROFESSIONAL INSTITUTES

    There are approximately 470 institutes in the UK across all industry sectors, with a collective membership of circa 4 million professionals, and they all expect their members to undertake CPD.

    For some institutes undertaking CPD is mandatory e.g. accountancy and law, and linked to a licence to practice, for others it’s obligatory. By ensuring that their members undertake CPD, the professional bodies seek to ensure that professional standards, legislative awareness and ethical practices are maintained.

    CPD Schemes often run over the period of a year and the institutes generally provide online tools for their members to record and reflect on their CPD activities.

    TYPICAL CPD SCHEMES AND RECORDING OF CPD (CPD points and hours)

    Professional bodies and Institutes CPD schemes are either structured as ‘Input’ or ‘Output’ based.

    ‘Input’ based schemes list a precise number of CPD hours that individuals must achieve within a given time period. These schemes can also use different ‘currencies’ such as points, merits, units or credits, where an individual must accumulate the number required. These currencies are usually based on time i.e. 1 CPD point = 1 hour of learning.

    ‘Output’ based schemes are learner centred. They require individuals to set learning goals that align to professional competencies, or personal development objectives. These schemes also list different ways to achieve the learning goals e.g. training courses, seminars or e:learning, which enables an individual to complete their CPD through their preferred mode of learning.

    The majority of Input and Output based schemes actively encourage individuals to seek appropriate CPD activities independently.

    As a formal provider of CPD certified activities, SMI Group can provide an indication of the learning benefit gained and the typical completion. However, it is ultimately the responsibility of the delegate to evaluate their learning, and record it correctly in line with their professional body’s or employers requirements.

    GLOBAL CPD

    Increasingly, international and emerging markets are ‘professionalising’ their workforces and looking to the UK to benchmark educational standards. The undertaking of CPD is now increasingly expected of any individual employed within today’s global marketplace.

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    We can provide a certificate for all our accredited events. To request a CPD certificate for a conference , workshop, master classes you have attended please email events@smi-online.co.uk

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