The Financial Modelling in the Oil & Gas Industry conference is the only event which provides relevant and timely information on all the important influences in your company’s key financial decision making. This year's event will gather industry experts to discuss topics including post-recession risk management, the outlook for energy markets and the key practices for effective financial modelling in upstream oil and gas projects.

This two day conference provides a unique opportunity to gain invaluable insight from the industries top minds, assess the benefits of the latest solutions and models and interact and engage in a practical forum to ensure you make the right decision for your business.


  • Hear from industry leaders and technical specialists
  • Identify the key influences and practices for financial modelling within your business
  • Understand the driving factors for energy markets and key decisions
  • Learn best practice solutions to ensure sustainable success
  • Network with senior industry figures and leading solutions providers
  • Strengthen your modelling skills to enable sound and confident decision making


  • Heads of Financial Modelling
  • Chief Finance Officers
  • Chief Economists
  • Chief Risk Officers
  • Heads of Quantitative Analysis
  • Heads of Statistics
  • Financial Directors
  • Directors of Pricing and Hedging
  • Senior Analysts
  • Risk Analysts
  • Quantitative Analysts  


Conference programme

8:30 Registration & Coffee

9:00 Chairman's Opening Remarks

Robert Manicke

Robert Manicke, Corporate Director of Quantitative Analyses, Statoil

9:10 Post-recession risk management financial concepts of oil & gas

Eyvind Aven

Eyvind Aven, Vice President Strategic Risk, Statoil

• Post-recession risk management financial concepts of oil & gas
• Should or will post-recession risk management differ from pre-recession risk management?
• What is enterprise wide risk management – features and concepts
• Risk management should build a culture of greater risk awareness – key organisational issues

9:50 Valuation and hedging in long term contracts

Kevin  Kindall

Kevin Kindall, Director of Quantative Analysis, Commercial Division, ConocoPhillips

• Constructing forward price and volatility curves
• Creating a robust valuation process
• Understanding model sensitivities and drivers of value
• Handling nonstandard contracts

10:30 Valuation and hedging of counterparty risk in commodity transactions

Mats Kjaer

Mats Kjaer, Vice President Quantitative Analytics, Barclays Capital

• What happens at default - the role of the ISDA master agreement and credit support annexes (CSAs)
• Unilateral CVA - only the counterparty can default - valuation and hedging
• Extensions - bilateral CVA and right and wrong way risk.

11:10 Morning Coffee

11:40 Gas price risk from the perspective of an integrated energy company

George Axiotis

George Axiotis, Head of Risk Control, RWE NPower

• Forecasting challenges
• Risk management methodologies
• Risk capital & risk appetite issues

12:20 Enterprise risk management – an energy company perspective

Mikhail Fedorov

Mikhail Fedorov, Independent Oil & Gas Risk Consultant,

• ERM as a way of thinking about risks
• ERM as a tool to deliver additional value
• How to fit models into ERM (and vice versa)
• Maturity of models vs. maturity of ERM

13:00 Networking Lunch

14:00 Evaluation of risk in portfolio management

• PaR modelling in Gas Portfolio with complex contracts
• Indexation risk on swing contracts
• Rateable strategy PaR analyses in downstream portfolio
• Hedge effectiveness in portfolio of complex contracts
• Consolidated risk analysis in multi commodity portfolio

Michael Sewalt

Michael Sewalt, Risk Manager, Centrica Energy

Richard Adams

Richard Adams, British Gas Trading Asset Risk Manager, Centrica Energy

14:40 The impacts of unconventional gas – what does it mean for gas industry modelling?

Alexander Engh

Alexander Engh, Senior Advisor, Sund Energy

• Potential and uncertainty of unconventional gas – volume, cost and location over time
• Possible impacts of unconventional gas on global gas: supply, demand, prices
• Decision making in gas – production in large conventional fields as well as smaller unconventional, infrastructure, strategy
• Other ‘right answers’ for future developments are also becoming more diverse
• Should models be adjusted to provide better answers and risk management for robust solutions?

15:20 Afternoon Tea

15:50 Panel Discussion: Modelling uncertainty – financial outlook for European LNG and unconventional gas

• Examining the impact of unconventional gas for European gas and oil
• Short term gains and long term problems of shale gas production
• Economic and commercial considerations of unconventional gas ventures
• The scramble for shale – examining Exxon, Shell & BP’s shale gas deals

Nick Grealy

Nick Grealy, Publisher, No Hot Air

Michael Sewalt

Michael Sewalt, Risk Manager, Centrica Energy

Eyvind Aven

Eyvind Aven, Vice President Strategic Risk, Statoil

16:30 Investments and Financial Modelling in Renewable Projects

Peter Pollak

Peter Pollak, , eSolve Partners LLP

• Modelling renewable projects, investments and prospects
• Unique aspects of modelling renewable projects
• Research and development investments and the likely long term pay offs
• Expected returns  and evaluation of different technologies, projects & sites

17:10 Chairman’s Closing Remarks and Close of Day One

Robert Manicke

Robert Manicke, Corporate Director of Quantitative Analyses, Statoil

8:30 Registration & Coffee

9:00 Chairman's Opening Remarks

Howard Rogers

Howard Rogers, Senior Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

9:10 Benefits of diversification in the crude oil market

Mads Weng Gade

Mads Weng Gade, Head of Financial Analysis, Dong Energy

Benefits of Diversification in the Crude Oil Market
• Diversification optimisation between gas and oil
• Benefits of diversification relative to costs differentials
• How diversified portfolios improve the ratio between reward and relative risk
• Strategic long term investments
• Superior portfolio performance – leading industry examples

9:50 Financial Modelling in Practice

Jason Cox

Jason Cox, Finance Manager, Shell

• Practical steps and pitfalls when building financial models
• How to get the most out of your models
• Financial Models ‘supporting’ business decisions

10:30 Overview of real options modelling

Michael Rees

Michael Rees, Financial Modelling Specialist,

• Definitions and users
• Comparison of approaches
• Links to other forms of modelling
• Example models – project phasing, testing, waiting, switching, value of information

11:10 Morning Coffee

11:40 Heightened oil price volatility – measures to mitigate oil price swing

Iain Clark

Iain Clark, Head of FX and Commodities Quantitative Analysis, Standard Bank Plc

• What affects market participants’ expectations
• Attaining price stability – protection from the costs of uncertainties
• Averaging features in commodity options
• Correlation structure and Asian spread options

12:20 Financial optimisation for oil & gas applications

Thomas Baeck

Thomas Baeck, Chief Executive Officer, Divis Intelligent Solutions GmbH

• Non-linear modelling, prediction and optimisation
• Applications in asset management, portfolio optimisation, and other strategic areas
• Applications in operational areas

13:00 Networking Lunch

14:00 Cause and effect of the gas-oil price gap

Howard Rogers

Howard Rogers, Senior Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

• Oil and Gas price linkages - causation vs. correlation - what is the natural order of things?
• Regional Gas Market Structures and price formation - what has changed what remains familiar?
• Dynamics facilitated by flexible LNG volumes - the new interconnected system
• What are the implications for the future?

14:40 Modelling for Gas-to-power projects - tools for economic assessment

Nazim Osmancik

Nazim Osmancik, Head of Energy Analytics, IPA Energy and Water Economics

• Gas-to-power project context
• Project characteristics & risks
• Answering strategic/tactical questions
• The ECLIPSE® model

15:20 Afternoon Tea

15:50 Asset valuation – key practical methods to maximise profitability

Alexei Bykov

Alexei Bykov, Strategy and Portfolio Director, TNK-BP

• Well fracturing - identifying issues, clarifying PI factors and candidate selection
• Operating capital stock - identifying main stock holders, team selection and monitoring
• BU performance - key performance indicators, planning and progress monitoring
• Conclusions - which factors are key to success

16:30 Using the results – practical methods creating accessible financial modelling reports

Edwin Hamilton

Edwin Hamilton, Chief Financial Officer, Terra Seis Group

• The model says x, so what next?
• Accuracy vs. simplicity
• Breakeven point
• Forecasts and budgets

17:10 Chairman’s Closing Remarks and Close of Day Two

Howard Rogers

Howard Rogers, Senior Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies



Financial Modelling in Excel: An Intense Overview

Financial Modelling in Excel: An Intense Overview

Copthorne Tara Hotel
24th November 2010
London, United Kingdom

Copthorne Tara Hotel

Scarsdale Place
London W8 5SR
United Kingdom

Copthorne Tara Hotel

The Copthorne Tara Hotel London Kensington is an elegant contemporary four-star hotel in prestigious Kensington, located just a two minutes walk from High Street Kensington underground station, making exploring easy. The hotel offers well-appointed and comfortable guest rooms combining Standard, Superior and Club accommodation. Club rooms offer iconic views over the city and include Club Lounge access for complimentary breakfast and refreshments. Guests can sample the authentic Singaporean, Malaysian and Chinese cuisine at Bugis Street, traditional pub fare at the Brasserie Restaurant & Bar or relax with a delicious drink at West8 Cocktail Lounge & Bar.

The Copthorne Tara Hotel boasts 745 square meters of flexible meeting space, consisting of the Shannon Suite and the Liffey Suite, ideal for hosting conferences, weddings and social events. Facilities include access to the business centre 24 hours a day, fully equipped fitness room, gift shop, theatre desk and Bureau de Change. With ample onsite parking outside the London congestion charge zone and excellent transport links via Heathrow Airport, the hotel is the perfect location for business or leisure stays. The hotel is within close proximity to the shops of High Street Kensington, Knightsbridge and Westfield London, Olympia Conference Centre, Royal Albert Hall, Kensington Palace and Hyde Park.




speaker image






CPD stands for Continuing Professional Development’. It is essentially a philosophy, which maintains that in order to be effective, learning should be organised and structured. The most common definition is:

‘A commitment to structured skills and knowledge enhancement for Personal or Professional competence’

CPD is a common requirement of individual membership with professional bodies and Institutes. Increasingly, employers also expect their staff to undertake regular CPD activities.

Undertaken over a period of time, CPD ensures that educational qualifications do not become obsolete, and allows for best practice and professional standards to be upheld.

CPD can be undertaken through a variety of learning activities including instructor led training courses, seminars and conferences, e:learning modules or structured reading.


There are approximately 470 institutes in the UK across all industry sectors, with a collective membership of circa 4 million professionals, and they all expect their members to undertake CPD.

For some institutes undertaking CPD is mandatory e.g. accountancy and law, and linked to a licence to practice, for others it’s obligatory. By ensuring that their members undertake CPD, the professional bodies seek to ensure that professional standards, legislative awareness and ethical practices are maintained.

CPD Schemes often run over the period of a year and the institutes generally provide online tools for their members to record and reflect on their CPD activities.


Professional bodies and Institutes CPD schemes are either structured as ‘Input’ or ‘Output’ based.

‘Input’ based schemes list a precise number of CPD hours that individuals must achieve within a given time period. These schemes can also use different ‘currencies’ such as points, merits, units or credits, where an individual must accumulate the number required. These currencies are usually based on time i.e. 1 CPD point = 1 hour of learning.

‘Output’ based schemes are learner centred. They require individuals to set learning goals that align to professional competencies, or personal development objectives. These schemes also list different ways to achieve the learning goals e.g. training courses, seminars or e:learning, which enables an individual to complete their CPD through their preferred mode of learning.

The majority of Input and Output based schemes actively encourage individuals to seek appropriate CPD activities independently.

As a formal provider of CPD certified activities, SMI Group can provide an indication of the learning benefit gained and the typical completion. However, it is ultimately the responsibility of the delegate to evaluate their learning, and record it correctly in line with their professional body’s or employers requirements.


Increasingly, international and emerging markets are ‘professionalising’ their workforces and looking to the UK to benchmark educational standards. The undertaking of CPD is now increasingly expected of any individual employed within today’s global marketplace.

CPD Certificates

We can provide a certificate for all our accredited events. To request a CPD certificate for a conference , workshop, master classes you have attended please email events@smi-online.co.uk

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